Speed-to-first-barrel is emerging as one of the most important metrics for investors entering Venezuela. After years of underinvestment and operational deterioration, the country has no shortage of resources, but reliable production will depend on restoring wells, infrastructure and services.

Recent deals are already pointing toward that model. Chevron plans to invest more than $7 billion through its Venezuelan joint ventures over the next five years, targeting production of more than 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) by 2031. It expects to use existing infrastructure, with production costs projected below $20 per barrel.

Eni is taking a similar position from a different starting point. In September, the Italian company became operator of Junín-5 in the Orinoco Belt under a 25-year contract. The field has 35 billion barrels of certified oil in place but is producing only around 12,000 bpd, highlighting the gap between Venezuela’s resource base and current productive capacity.

GeoPark’s Bare field agreement provides another example. The company plans to invest $7 billion under a 25-year production-sharing agreement, targeting an increase in output from around 11,000 bpd to 90,000 bpd by 2038. It will involve reactivating about 1,100 wells and drilling roughly 80 new horizontal wells.

Much of Venezuela’s near- to medium-term production growth can therefore come from brownfield rehabilitation rather than conventional greenfield development. Rystad estimates workovers and infrastructure repairs could add 300,000-350,000 bpd over two to three years.

Repsol is pursuing a similar model at Petroquiriquire, where it agreed in April to regain operational control and said it could increase Venezuelan production by 50% within 12 months and triple it within three years. The work requires returning inactive wells to production, replacing artificial-lift equipment, repairing gathering systems and restoring water, power and pipeline systems.

Venezuela’s heavy and extra-heavy crude adds another layer: production and transportation depend on upgrading, blending and access to diluents, while aging infrastructure can constrain volumes.

The service sector is central to the recovery. SLB expects to reactivate up to 15 rigs currently in Venezuela, with up to four potentially operational this year, while transportation challenges, permitting and infrastructure deficiencies remain obstacles to importing specialized equipment. Baker Hughes has also signed agreements with PDVSA, Lindsayca and Fulcrum LNG covering Venezuelan energy infrastructure, alongside a separate New Stratus Energy agreement supporting forthcoming projects.

The economics of the new investment framework also make speed more important. Venezuela’s January reform opened greater scope for private companies to participate directly in upstream operations and commercialize production, giving joint-venture partners greater project control and access to oil-sale proceeds.

That can improve project economics, but investors will still need to distinguish between resources that are technically recoverable and barrels that can be produced within a commercially useful timeframe.

This is where competition for capital is likely to emerge. An operator with existing wells, roads, pipelines, power and export infrastructure may be able to generate cash flow considerably sooner than a project requiring new surface facilities and extensive field development. For service companies, equipment suppliers and infrastructure investors, those requirements represent a parallel investment market.

Venezuela Energy Week 2027 in Caracas will take place as that process moves from contracts toward execution. The event will bring operators, investors, service companies and government stakeholders together to assess projects across the energy value chain.

For Venezuela, the investment question is operational: which projects can put the first additional barrel into the market, at what cost, and how quickly can production be scaled from there? Those answers will determine which companies lead Venezuela’s next cycle.

Venezuela Energy Week 2027 takes place February 22-25 at the Simon Bolivar Convention Center in Caracas. Organized by Energy Capital & Power and taking place under the patronage of Acting President Delcy Rodriguez, PDVSA and the Ministry of Hydrocarbons, VEW is the country's flagship oil and gas investment platform. To register or learn more about sponsorship and speaking opportunities, visit www.venezuelaenergyweek.com.